Oct 7th 2019

Our Democracy in Crisis?

by James J. Zogby

Dr. James J. Zogby is the President of the Arab American Institute

 

I don't know which metaphor to use to describe the current crisis in our politics because so many come to mind. Are we at a tipping point? The edge of a cliff? Or sitting on a volcano waiting for it to explode? You can choose one or all, because we are in a place we've never been before and it's dangerous.    

The problem didn't start with the election of Donald Trump. Nor did it begin with the Democrats launching an impeachment inquiry against Trump. This is a developing crisis that has been growing like a cancer within our polity for at least the past 25 years. Its main symptoms are a lack of civility in our political discourse, a "take no prisoners" mindset, and a denial of the very legitimacy of "the other side." Trump didn't create this crisis; he was the result of it.  

When Newt Gingrich took the helm of Congress in 1995, unlike previous Republican leaders, he embarked on a campaign not only to obstruct the efforts of then President Clinton, but to destroy him. Congress launched a series of investigations accusing Clinton of everything from corruption to obstruction of justice – with hints of even more nefarious plots to assassinate those who might pose a problem to his presidency.  

They finally settled on Clinton's lying about an embarrassing sexual dalliance as the grounds for impeachment. What was most notable about this entire sordid affair was the total contempt demonstrated by this new breed of Republicans for Clinton. It wasn't political. It was personal. They weren't out to defeat his proposed legislation. They didn’t see him as a legitimate president and sought to destroy him.  

Later, during the months' long standoff that accompanied the 2000 election, culminating in the Supreme Court decision that George Bush should was the winner, my brother John Zogby conducted poll in which he asked Democratic and Republican voters whether or not, should the other side win, would they feel that new president be considered a "legitimate president." The results were disturbing; despite the fact that Al Gore had won the popular vote and the outcome was still being decided, a significant majority of Republicans said they would not accept Gore as a legitimate president. A majority of Democrats, on the other hand, said that should Bush be declared the winner, they would respect the outcome.  

Bush, unlike Clinton, did not face retribution from the Democratic controlled Senate.  They passed his tax cuts, compromised on a series of domestic initiatives, and rallied behind him after 9/11, giving him the authorization to make war and unprecedented powers of intrusive domestic surveillance. It wasn't Democrats who sunk Bush's presidency, it was his failed war in Iraq, his disastrous mishandling of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and the 2008 economic collapse.  

Within weeks of Barack Obama’s inauguration, Republicans stepped up efforts to obstruct and delegitimize his presidency. The GOP's minority leadership in the House and Senate boldly declared that their intention was not to work with him but "to bring him down" by funding outside and organizing outside groups, like the Tea Party and the "birther movement." Never before had leaders in one major party been engaged in such a campaign to question whether the president was even a legal US citizen. And their efforts took a toll. In polling conducted back then, well over 60% of Republicans stated that they believed the Obama was not born in the US - and therefore was not a legitimate president (the same number also said they believed that Obama was secretly a Muslim, therefore lying about being a Christian). 

While Obama's presidency was above reproach in that he was never charged with any wrongdoing. His first Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, was hounded by Republican Congressional committees who accusing her of concealing and deleting her private email account hide it from investigators. She was subjected to hours of interrogated by Congressmen who charged that she failed to protect the US Ambassador to Libya, contributing to his death. While one might say that the email inquiry was a legitimate concern – despite the fact that several of Clinton’s predecessors also had such personal accounts – the contempt Congress demonstrated in charging her with contributing to the death of the Ambassador was clearly an effort to harass, humiliate, and degrade her service.     

This lack of respect and civility brought us to the 2016 presidential campaign and the election of Donald Trump.  

During the primary, Trump demeaned his opponents, railed against the media, insulted the courts, preyed on xenophobic fears, and incited his supporters to use violence against protesters. His behavior was so outrageous that pundits declared him to be "unpresidential" and unelectable. They failed to recognize that the political well had been so poisoned that what they found unacceptable was well received by many Republican voters were fed a steady diet of incivility and contempt for "the other" over two decades. The beast spawned by the GOP in the 1990s had come of age and was now devouring them.  

Those who thought that Trump would act presidential upon entering the Oval Office soon found they were in error. He had honed his skills as an entertainer along the lines of an insulting Don Rickles or a derisive Rodney Dangerfield. It served him well on the campaign trail, and he was, therefore, not inclined to change direction. Instead, he became Trump-the-performer on steroids.  

It has been a difficult two and a half years with this president. He delivered the tax cuts, deregulation, and conservative judges the conservative and religious wings craved. And he kept his supporters agitated and entertained. The danger is that, on the fringes of his base, he energized white supremacy movements by inflaming passions of racism and xenophobia. Federal law enforcement now feels that the greatest threat to national security is not from foreign-inspired extremist movements, but domestic extremists.  

At the same time, President Trump has demonstrated contempt for Congress and the rule of law, leading some Democrats to call for his impeachment. His firing of officials who were investigating members of his administration, his refusal to cooperate with legitimate requests from Congress into his behavior in office, the lack of transparency surrounding his businesses’ profits made during his time in office, and violations of congressionally approved budget authorizations to fund his pet projects, have all been subjects of concern.  

In each instance, he has responded with insults, derision, and contempt, questioning the very legitimacy of those who oppose him – Congress, the FBI, the media, or the courts. And he has used Twitter and rallies to make his case and inflame his base. At times, it appeared that President Trump was even goading Democrats into taking steps to impeach him.  

While the base of the Democratic Party was clamoring for impeachment, the leadership hesitated, fearing that it was a trap that Trump wanted them to fall into in order to mobilize his supporters. With the release of a CIA whistleblower’s report claiming that the president sought to suborn Ukraine’s government into investigating the leading Democratic presidential candidate, thereby helping to advance his election prospects, and evidence that he had withheld aid to Ukraine to encourage their support for his request – the tide turned and the Democratic leadership had no choice but to begin impeachment proceedings. All of this has only further inflamed Trump as his intense twitter rants and his shocking performance in the presence of the President of Finland made all too clear.  

When earlier this week, Trump tweeted a comment by a right-wing preacher saying that should he be impeached, it would provoke a civil war – it was a prediction/threat I believe should be taken seriously. President Trump’s behavior has mimicked that of authoritarian leaders. He has demonstrated that he will strike back with fury at opponents. And he has so agitated his base, that I believe there is a real concern for violence. I am even concerned that should he lose the election in 2020, neither he nor many of his most fervent followers will accept the outcome.  

Back to where I began. I’m don’t know which metaphor is most appropriate to describe the very real crisis facing our democracy, but what I do know is that it is, to be sure, a crisis.

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More Current Affairs

Jun 4th 2020
EXTRACT: "Many Americans are clearly horrified by their president’s crass and incendiary words. But will their disapproval be offset by anxiety about violent social unrest? Will age-old racial prejudices, often unspoken, or even acknowledged, still make them vote for the false security of a coarse white bully?  Much will depend on how hot this summer gets. If people think rationally in November, it is hard to imagine that enough of them would vote to keep this appalling administration in power for another four years. But fear is reason’s worst enemy."
Jun 2nd 2020
EXTRACT: "For starters, many Americans have accepted that they live in a winner-takes-all society of deepening inequality. While the wealth and incomes of those at the very top continue to grow, tens of millions of Americans struggle to afford health care, childcare, and other basic goods. This story has been told many times over. But what often goes unremarked is that the responsibility for managing the social costs of this system has been offloaded onto the police."
May 27th 2020
EXTRACT: "Obamagate is the latest conspiracy theory to be pushed by US president, Donald Trump. It started on the morning of May 10, when Trump retweeted the word “OBAMAGATE!” By the next day, the Obamagate hashtag had accrued over two million tweets and another four million by the end of the week. Trump has repeatedly reused the slogan on his Twitter feed since and it has been promoted by right-wing influencers including Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity and many others....You are not alone if you’re confused by what Obamagate actually is or why Trump is tweeting about it."
May 23rd 2020
EXTRACT: "Not all aspects of our near and medium-term future can be foreseen at this juncture of the Covid-19 pandemic, but we now know enough to make some hypotheses about what is likely to change, based on what has already changed. The future is sure to look very different than it did before this decade began, regardless of whether a vaccine is found. If a vaccine is found, it is unlikely to be tested, approved, manufactured, and efficiently distributed to the world’s population of nearly 8 billion people for years. Bearing in mind that there is no vaccine for any coronavirus, what is likelier is that the world will be living with Covid-19 as a part of our ecosystem for many years to come – possibly permanently. That means that our new normal is probably already here."
May 21st 2020
EXTRACT: "LONDON – The new Franco-German proposal for a €500 billion ($547 billion) European recovery fund could turn out to be the most important historic consequence of the coronavirus. It is even conceivable that the deal struck between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron might one day be remembered as the European Union’s “Hamiltonian moment,” comparable to the 1790 agreement between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson on public borrowing, which helped to turn the United States, a confederation with little central government, into a genuine political federation."
May 19th 2020
EXTRACT: "In April 2011, Donald Trump, then considering a run for the presidency the following year, said that he had sent investigators to Hawaii to check out rumors that President Barack Obama wasn’t born there, but in Kenya, which would disqualify him for the presidency. His investigators, Trump declared, “cannot believe what they’re finding.” I can find no record of Trump being challenged on this outlandish claim at the time. In the fall of 2016, Trump, now the Republican presidential nominee, was convinced by his staff that he had to abandon this “birther” nonsense. He did so reluctantly, charging – also with no evidence – that such rumors had actually been initiated by his opponent, Hillary Clinton. There, in a nutshell, is Trump’s modus operandi: he’s not just a liar but a fabulist, seemingly unconcerned with whether his fictions will be exposed. If they are, the world simply moves on as he invents fresh distractions."
May 19th 2020
EXTRACT: "Li, a doctor, was purportedly silenced and chastised by Chinese officials for warning on December 30, 2019, about a new virus in the Wuhan hospital where he worked. When it became evident that he was on to something serious – so serious, in fact, that it ultimately killed him – the Chinese government changed its tune and celebrated Li’s bravery. If only that had happened sooner, the argument goes, the world would have avoided this horrific pandemic.................... But that’s not what happened."
May 9th 2020
EXTRACT: "Jana Winter and Hunter Walker at Yahoo News broke the story that 11 Secret Service agents have tested positive for the coronavirus. Likely some of them served in the West Wing. This week it was revealed at that a US military valet who brought Trump food came down with the virus, sending Trump into a “lava level” rage. Two aides to Vice President Mike Pence have tested positive. Some observers are afraid that the virus is circulating in the West Wing itself."
May 6th 2020
EXTRACT: "There has been much debate around the world about the source of the COVID-19 pandemic, ranging from a laboratory to Wuhan’s seafood market to some other form of animal-to-human transmission. While there is no proof (yet) that the virus may have been inadvertently released from one of the two biological research laboratories located at Wuhan, there is evidence that viral release has occurred in the past, and a host of additional data that point to a laboratory connection. "
May 4th 2020
EXTRACT: "A better bet is that nothing will be the same. Wealth will be destroyed on a catastrophic scale, and policymakers will need to find a way to ensure that, at least in some cases, creditors take part of the hit, a process that will play out over years of negotiation and litigation. For bankruptcy lawyers and lobbyists, it will be a bonanza, part of which will come from pressing taxpayers to honor bailout guarantees. Such a scenario would be an unholy mess."
Apr 29th 2020
EXTRACT: "We need the twenty-first century’s two superpowers, America and China, to set the example, by burying their rivalry and uniting all of humankind around a collective response to the current crisis, and to those that await us. As COVID-19 has taught us, the old international system can no longer guarantee humankind’s safety and security. We cannot afford to be taught that lesson twice."
Apr 29th 2020
EXTRACT: "It should come as no surprise that Trump has abused his power in orchestrating the federal response to the pandemic. For example, he made sure that Colorado received 100 much-needed ventilators, and made sure that Colorado voters knew it, in order to help re-elect troubled incumbent Republican senator Cory Gardner.  More alarming, Trump effectively threatened to wage germ warfare against US Postal Service workers by denying them congressionally approved virus-mitigation aid unless the USPS quadrupled rates on packages. Trump’s actual target was Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon and owner of The Washington Post."
Apr 28th 2020
EXTRACT: "These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order. But any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive the coming Greater Depression."
Apr 26th 2020
EXTRACT: "In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the US Federal Reserve will buy unlimited quantities of Treasury bonds, the Bank of England will purchase £200 billion ($250 billion) of gilts, and the European Central Bank up to €750 billion ($815 billion) of eurozone bonds. Almost certainly, central banks will end up providing monetary finance to fund fiscal deficits. The only question is whether they should make that explicit."
Apr 25th 2020
EXTRACT: "Even if you’re not enamoured with creepy crawlies, their gradual disappearance from the places they were once numerous is an ongoing crisis for the natural world. Insects and small invertebrates occupy the bottom rungs of most terrestrial ecosystems. As ecologist E.O. Wilson once observed, if you take away the “little things that run the world” then most of the creatures occupying niches further up the food chain will disappear too, and that includes humans. That’s why a 2017 study in Germany rang so many alarm bells – it reported a 75% decline over 27 years in the local biomass of all kinds of flying insects."
Apr 24th 2020
EXTRACT: "By 2000, China had already established near monopoly status on the manufacture of a whole range of products that the world rapidly consumes. Just a decade ago, 91% of all personal computers, 80% of all air conditioners, 74% of global solar cells, 71% of cell phones, and 60% of all cement were being manufactured in China. The world was hooked on Chinese-made products and the Chinese government had its way with foreign companies choosing to manufacture goods there, enforcing many draconian operating requirements in an environment that most companies would never have agreed to endure anywhere else."
Apr 20th 2020
Extracts: "Long before people and goods were traversing the globe non-stop, pandemics were already an inescapable feature of human civilization.........Nearly two millennia before London’s Great Plague, during the epidemic that killed at least one-third of Athenians near the end of the Peloponnesian War.............Epidemics not only ravage economies, but also throw societal inequalities into sharp relief, deepening deepen mistrust in the status quo........... Machiavelli, who witnessed – and probably died in – the plague in Florence in 1527, viewed the outbreak as the direct result of misrule. Criticisms of China, Trump, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and others have echoed this sentiment....Others view epidemics through the lens of conspiracy theories. Marcus Aurelius blamed the Christians for the Antonine Plague. In Christian Europe, the fourteenth-century Black Death was blamed on the Jews......Despite these similarities, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to stand out in a crucial way: it is unlikely to upend the established order. The Antonine and Justinian Plagues encouraged the spread of Christianity throughout Europe. The Black Death drove people toward a less religious, more humanistic view of the world – a shift that would lead to the Renaissance. The Spanish flu prompted uprisings, massive labor strikes, and anti-imperialist protests; in India, where millions died, it helped to galvanize the independence movement."
Apr 17th 2020
EXTRACT: "From peddling disinformation about the virus to disbanding the National Security Council directorate overseeing pandemic threats, Trump has squandered multiple opportunities to get ahead of the COVID-19 crisis. The health and economic consequences that we are now experiencing have long been predicted. US intelligence analysts were warning about precisely this scenario for at least 12 years. But even they could not foresee that America would end up with a president willing to sacrifice so many lives on the altar of his ego."
Apr 9th 2020
EXTRACTS: ".........[1] The average bankruptcy takes 260 days to work out. During that period, businesses will have a hard time rebuilding.......[2]...consider the complexity of the global supply chain. More than 90% of Fortune 1,000 companies have at least one tier-2 (secondary) supplier in Hubei, the Chinese province around Wuhan.........[3]...disturbingly, 40% of all US corporate debt was rated BBB, just above junk, going into the crisis, while only 30% of the world’s outstanding stock of non-financial corporate bonds were rated A or above..........[4] Despite central bank interest-rate cuts, borrowing costs for companies are now rising dramatically. With further downgrades from credit ratings agencies all but guaranteed, especially with many big earnings announcements due after Easter, some companies will lose access to credit altogether. Moody’s estimates that the default rate for junk-rated companies could hit an astounding 10%, compared to a historical average of 4%......[5]...flu vaccines are relatively ineffective. They reduce your risk of becoming ill by 40% to 60%, compared to 97% for measles vaccines and 88% for mumps........[6] Lockdowns might end, while other measures like social distancing, limits on gatherings and travel restrictions continue – perhaps on a seasonal basis......[7] South Korea could be a glimpse into the future. It has so far avoided an Italian-style health crisis without a lockdown, but has still imposed various restrictions on the economy."
Apr 8th 2020
EXTRACT: "A recent study, published in the British Medical Journal, suggested that 78% of people with COVID-19 have no symptoms. The findings are in line with research from an Italian village at the epicentre of the outbreak showing that 50%-75% were asymptomatic, but represented “a formidable source” of contagion. A recent Icelandic study also showed that around 50% of those who tested positive to COVID-19 in a large-scale testing exercise were asymptomatic. Meanwhile, a WHO report found that “80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infections and 5% are critical infections................The new BMJ study is seemingly different to the findings of studies from earlier in the pandemic, which suggested that the completely asymptomatic proportion of COVID-19 is small: 17.9% on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship and 33.3% in Japanese people who were evacuated from Wuhan.”