Nouriel Roubini on stagflation, debt distress, financial innovation, and more
Nouriel Roubini Says More…
Project Syndicate: In your latest PS commentary, you reaffirmed your expectation that monetary authorities’ efforts to rein in inflation will “cause both an economic and a financial crash,” and that “regardless of their tough talk,” central banks “will feel immense pressure to reverse their tightening” once that crash materializes. What would the impact of such a reversal be? Do monetary policymakers in the United States and Europe have any good – or less bad – options?
Nouriel Roubini: Central banks are in both a stagflation trap and a debt trap. Amid negative aggregate supply shocks that reduce growth and increase inflation, they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If they increase interest rates enough to bring inflation down to 2%, they will cause a severe economic hard landing. And if they don’t – attempting instead to protect growth and jobs – they will be left increasingly far behind the curve, leading to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations and a wage-price spiral.
Very high debt ratios (both private and public) complicate the dilemma further. Raising interest rates enough to crush inflation causes not only an economic crash, but also a financial crash, with highly leveraged private and public debtors facing severe distress. The resulting financial turmoil that intensifies the recession, creating a vicious cycle of deepening recession and escalating financial pain and debt distress.
In these circumstances, central banks will blink. They will wimp out in the fight against inflation, in an effort to avoid an economic and financial crash. But that will lead to a higher permanent inflation rate, while only postponing the arrival of stagflation and debt crises. In other words, central banks in the United States, Europe, and other advanced economies have only bad options.
PS: As you put it in your new book, MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future and How to Survive Them, we are headed toward the “Mother of All Debt Crises,” and none of the potential solutions is without costs. We must “choose our poison.” But does more noxious mean more effective? For developing economies, in particular, are innovative proposals like debt-for-climate swaps examples of policies that recognize the interconnected nature of today’s megathreats?
NR: Solutions for debt distress are never easy or costless. There are always trade-offs. Monetizing the debt and wiping out its real value with unexpected inflation works only for countries that borrow in their own currencies, and relying on the inflation tax to wipe out debts causes a persistent increase in the inflation rate. For debt denominated in a foreign currency, the only feasible option is a default and restructuring when the debt has become unsustainable – processes that can be messy and protracted, and that can cost a country access to capital markets. Imposing taxes on wealth or capital to reduce unsustainable debt levels is not only politically difficult; it can also undermine investment, capital accumulation, and growth.
Debt-for-equity or debt-for-climate swaps convert the debt claims of creditors into equity claims or claims to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. But they are not large enough in scope to resolve severe debt problems, and debtors may feel that converting debt into equity on emissions-reduction claims erodes sovereignty by effectively transferring the ownership of a country’s natural resources and assets to foreign entities. Debt-for-climate swaps can neither resolve debt distress nor contribute much to combating climate change.
PS: One example of the “slow-motion negative supply shocks” that will characterize the “Great Stagflation” is “fiscal policies to boost wages and workers’ power.” One of the ten “megathreats” you highlight in your book is the rise in income and wealth inequality, which is fueling a backlash against democracy. What policies or interventions would help counter the distributional effects of the current crisis, without inadvertently exacerbating it?
NR: Income and wealth inequality have been rising within countries for many reasons. Notable factors include trade and globalization, technological innovation (which is capital-intensive, skill-biased, and labor-saving), the self-reinforcing political power of economic and financial elites, the concentration of oligopolistic power in the corporate sector, and the declining power of labor and unions. Together, these factors have triggered a backlash against liberal democracy.
Fiscal policies that support workers, unions, the under- and unemployed, and disadvantaged groups (such as women and racial minorities) can help to reduce inequality, but they also lead to higher inflation by increasing wage inflation. And given corporations’ disproportionate pricing power (compared to labor), prices rise more than wages, as has occurred in 2021 and 2022. The result is a decline in real wages, which exacerbates inequality.
Historically, fiscal policies – including progressive taxation – have had only a modest impact on inequality. And the rise of artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation mean that labor is set to become even weaker over time, as humans lose many jobs – routine, cognitive, and increasingly even creative jobs – to software and robots.
By the Way…
PS: You indicate in MegaThreats that whoever leads in AI may become the leading global power, and you suggest that China may get there first. But the recent government crackdown on tech companies has raised fears that China is crushing the sector’s “animal spirits,” and Xi’s recent consolidation of power implies that the ruling Communist Party’s commitment to central control will only strengthen. How do you view China’s high-tech ambitions – and its economic prospects more broadly – under Xi?
NR: The US and China are in a race not only to become the leading geopolitical and military power of this century, but also to dominate the industries of the future, including AI, machine learning, robotics, automation, the Internet of Things, big data, 5G (tomorrow, 6G), and quantum computing. Both are subsidizing these technologies, but China takes a more heavy-handed command-and-control approach.
True, China’s recent crackdown on the private sector, including tech firms, does not bode well for the country’s ability to devise truly innovative technologies and applications. But the sheer force of China’s continued top-down investment in leading-edge sectors – which the government continues to shower with massive financial incentives and subsidies – may yet enable the country to dominate the technologies underlying the industries of the future.
America’s more nuanced approach may succeed in the long term. But China’s command-and-control model has been proven to affect dynamically the economy’s comparative advantage. That is why the US needs the right industrial policies. A purely laissez-faire approach will not be enough to enable the US to dominate in strategic technologies.
That said, China’s state-capitalist model does appear to be running out of steam, causing a sharp reduction in potential growth. And, given Xi’s statist approach, it is likely that this growth slowdown will continue and deepen.
PS: Yet another threat you identify is destabilizing financial innovation, which may lead to the debasement of fiat currencies. Each chapter of your book includes possible solutions. What steps should policymakers be taking to mitigate this threat?
NR: Historically, financial innovation without proper regulation and supervision has led to asset inflation, which fuels bubbles that eventually burst. Today, we are also facing goods and services inflation, owing to negative aggregate supply shocks and the effects of fiscal and monetary policies that were too loose for far too long. With high inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies is a rising risk.
But the solution is not cryptocurrencies, which are neither currencies nor assets; in fact, crypto has turned out to be the Mother of All Scams, and its bubbles have now gone bust. Instead, the solution is proper supervision and regulation of the financial system, including steps to curb toxic innovations that, like crypto, have no use or benefit but fuel financial instability.
In addition, the moral hazard of loose monetary and credit policies that feed bubbles and deepen debt traps needs to be addressed. But there is no easy solution to debt traps, which are driven by deep political biases toward private and public over-leveraging.
PS: You famously predicted the 2008 global financial crisis, earning you the moniker Dr. Doom. In MegaThreats, you make what is arguably an even bleaker prediction: that a “dystopian” future of “chaos, crises, instability, and domestic and global conflict” is more likely than a “utopian” one of sound policymaking and international cooperation. Are economists, investors, and policymakers more willing to take such warnings seriously nowadays, or do you get the sense that those with the power to make a difference still have their heads buried in the sand?
NR: We need to distinguish between normative statements, about how the world should ideally or desirably be, and positive statements, about how the world is likely to be. Unfortunately, I don’t see any reason to think that we have moved meaningfully beyond our preferred strategy of kicking the can down the road – not least because of the sheer number of barriers to implementing the right policies.
Consider global warming. Half of the US – the Republican Party – denies the reality of human-induced climate change and actively blocks policies intended to address it when in power. There is also an inter-generational conflict: older generations are unwilling to bear the costs of action to prevent a future they will never see, while younger generations are smaller and often don’t even vote.
At the international level, we have a free-rider problem: even if a country makes all the sacrifices needed to achieve net-zero emissions, it will benefit only if the rest of the world does the same. And the advanced economies, which created most of the stock of atmospheric greenhouse gases, are unwilling to fork over the trillions of dollars in subsidies that developing economies need to achieve net-zero emissions and adapt to a warmer climate. Meanwhile, the emerging economies that produce most of the flow of new emissions today – such as China and India – may resist cutting their emissions until they are richer, perhaps in another decade or two. Finally, the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China is severely hampering efforts to advance global public goods.
The same is true for the solutions to many other megathreats. That is why the dystopian future is more likely than the utopian one.
By Graham Allison
Allison shows that, in the last few centuries, a rising power has emerged 16 times. In 12 of those cases, this rising power ended up at war with the established power. One exception was the transfer of power from the British Empire to the American “Empire,” but these two powers had the same language, culture, and economic and political system. Another exception was the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, but the latter imploded, as a result of its internal contradictions. China is no failing power. Instead, it continues to rise – and to flex its geopolitical muscles. For now, the Sino-American cold war grows colder, but a hot war over Taiwan may well be coming.
By Henry A. Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, and Daniel Huttenlocher
The foremost geopolitical strategist of our times (Kissinger) and the former CEO of Google (Schmidt) have written this sobering analysis of how artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, and automation will transform the way we live, work, study, play, socialize, shop, conduct business and commerce, and, perhaps more importantly, wage wars. Whoever controls these revolutionary technologies – the US or China – will not only dominate the global economy, but also become the military and geopolitical hegemon of the twenty-first century. But, again, we return to the risk of catastrophic conflict between these two competing powers.
By Peter Zeihan
The recent cycle of globalization was underpinned by a hegemon willing to provide global public goods, such as free trade, capital mobility, a reliable international reserve currency, and global security. But the US empire – fiscally stressed, divided domestically, and stretched thin strategically – is no longer up to the role of premier global hegemon. And rising powers such as China – together with its revisionist allies, such as Russia, Iran, and North Korea – are challenging the economic, monetary, and geopolitical order that emerged from World War II and was designed by the US and its West allies. The result is a process of de-globalization. The world’s leading powers are engaged in economic decoupling, global supply chains are being balkanized, countries are pursuing “friend-shoring” rather than offshoring, and prioritizing secure and fair trade over free trade. In this increasingly fragmented world, countries or regions will eventually have no choice but to make their own goods, grow their own food, secure their own energy, and fight their own battles – all with populations that are both shrinking and aging. This deglobalized world will be poorer, more divided, and deeply conflicted.
Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, is Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team and the author of MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them (Little, Brown and Company, 2022).
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2022.
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